ATP World Tour Finals: Federer vs Tsonga

AP Photo/Sang Tan

Roger Federer defeated David Ferrer in straight sets 7-5 6-3 to reach his 7th year-end championship final of his career, his 100th career tournament final (69-30 record). A few hours later Jo-Wilfried Tsonga outlasted Tomas Berdych 6-3 7-5 to join Federer in the final, which will be a reprise of the very first match of the tournament where Federer beat Tsonga in a tight 3-set match 6-2 2-6 6-4 .

I had predicted Federer would face Berdych and Ferrer would face Tsonga, since Ferrer won 5 sets and lost 3 while Berdych won 5 sets and lost 4 but I guess on game percentage Berdych ended up being the #1 player in Group A so he played the #2 player in Group B (Tsonga) while the #2 player in Group A ( Ferrer) was stuck playing the undefeated #1 player from Group B (Federer). The result was Federer improved to 12-0 lifetime against Ferrer while Tsonga won his first career match against Berdych (now 1-1).

By winning today Federer assures he will end the year at #3, behind World #1 Novak Djokovic and World#2 Rafael Nadal. Federer becomes the 5th player in ATP history to reach 100 tour finals, behind Jimmy Connors (163), Ivan Lendl (146), John McEnroe (108) and Guillermo Vilas (104).

Federer is trying to become the only person to win the year-end championship 6 times, which I believe he will do, in a very tough 3-set match on Sunday.

ATP World Tour Finals: Djokovic Loses 2nd Consecutive Match

AFP PHOTO / GLYN KIRK

World #1 Novak Djokovic amazing 2011 season ended with a whimper on Friday when he lost his second consecutive match at the ATP World Tour finals in London, failing to qualify for the semifinal round. Djokovic lost 3-6 6-3 6-3 to compatriot Janko Tipsarevic a few days after he was demolished in straight sets by David Ferrer 6-3 6-1. Djokovic's only win was a 3rd set tiebreak win where he saved match point against Tomas Berdych. Berdych and Ferrer will be in the semifinalis from Group A, since both the original higher ranked players, Andy Murray and Djokovic failed to make it through the round-robin plays (with Murray withdrawing from the tournament after losing in straight sets to Ferrer).

Earlier, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga had qualified for the semifinals by eliminating Rafael Nadal 7-6(2) 4-6 6-3 and Roger Federer became the first player to qualify while remaining undefeated (and now on a 15-match winning streak) by dismissing Mardy Fish.

Djokovic's 2011 season was still remarkable ending with a 70-6 record (losses to Federer, Murray, Juan Martin del Potro, Kei Nishikori, Ferrer,  and Tipsarevic) that includes 3 major titles and 5 Masters series titles and a 41-match winning streak.

The year's last tournament will conclude with Federer facing Berdych and Tsonga facing Ferrer in the semifinals

World Tour Finals 2011: Round-Robin Draws Set

The two groups are set for the round-robin matches at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London.

GROUP A
Novak Djokovic
Andy Murray
David Ferrer
Tomas Berdych


GROUP B
Rafael Nadal
Roger Federer
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Mardy Fish


The matches will begin on Sunday November 20th with Federer vs Tsonga and Nadal vs Fish, then on Monday Djokovic will play Berdych and Murray will play Berdych. The Top 2 players from each group will advance and the Top player in one group will play the second player in the other group. I suspect a Murray v Federer final will be occurring on Sunday November 27th.

Federer Wins Paris Masters Title Over Tsonga

PHOTO CREDIT: MIGUEL MEDINA

Roger Federer won his 69th ATP tour title in the Bercy suburbs of Paris (one week after winning his 68th in Basel) by defeating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-1 7-6(3). Tsonga may have been slightly tired due to his thrilling three-set win against John Isner in the semifinals, while Federer has looked extremely sharp all week, becoming only the fourth player to win the tournament without dropping a set and the second, after Andre Agassi, to win both important tournaments played in Paris (Roland Garros and the Paris Masters).

It was Federer's 3rd title of the year and 69th of his career, playing in his 99th career final. It was the Swiss Great's 18th career ATP Masters title, one behind Rafael Nadal's 19 (which is the all-time record). In 2011, Novak Djokovic won 5 Masters events (the most anyone has ever won in a single season), followed by Andy Murray with two (Shanghai and Cincinnati) and Federer and Nadal with one each (Paris and Monte Carlo, respectively). It was Federer's first title in Bercy, and he has now reached the finals of all 9 Masters series tournament (but has never won in Monte Carlo).

The most prestigious tournament of the year starts Sunday November 20th with the top 8 players (Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Federer, David Ferrer, Tsonga, Tomas Berdych and Mardy Fish) who qualified for the year-end Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London. Federer is the defending champion (defeating Nadal last year) and enters the round-robin tournament on a 12-match winning streak.

Tsonga Saves 3 MPs Against Isner To Reach Paris Final

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga of France reached the final of the Paris Masters by saving three match points against 6'9" American John Isner and winning the match 3-6 7-6(1) 7-6(3). Tsonga had 7 break points on Isner's serve but was never able to convert, while Isner was able to break Tsonga in the 8th game of the first set and easily hold his serve again to take the first set.

As the match progressed, Isner's groundstrokes, which were hit with surprising authority on both wings, started to lose their bite and Tsonga began to win more of the baseline rallies. Still,with his booming serve, the American was able to keep the match close, and it took the rabidly partisan Parisian crowd to provide the last push to get their countryman into the victor's circle.

Tsonga will face Roger Federer, who demolished Tomas Berdych 6-4 6-3 in just 80 minutes and is in his first Paris Masters final. Tsonga won the tournament back in 2008. Federer and Tsonga have met 5 times this year so far, in some rather important matches. Federer leads their 2011 series 3-2 but lost 2 consecutive matches against the Frenchman at Wimbledon and then in Montreal this summer. Surprisingly, the two have never met in a final, where Tsonga has an excellent 7-3 career record, while Federer has an incredible 68-30, with his last title coming last week in Basel. Tsonga has never lost a 3rd set in Bercy but I suspect that streak will end on Sunday when Federer wins his 69th title.

PREDICTION: Federer.

Djokovic Gives Tsonga Walk-Over in Paris Masters

Novak Djokovic withdrew from the Paris Masters tournament on Friday before his quarterfinal match against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, handing the Frenchman a walk-over into the semifinals, where he will face John Isner (who beat World #5 David Ferrer 6-3 3-6 6-3). Djokovic published a statement on his official website, NovakDjokovic.rs, which said (in Serbo-Croatian): "Sadly I have to inform you that I have withdrawn from the tournament. I have pushed myself to the limit by playing, and after the match yesterday my shoulder got worse."

Djokovic has only lost 4 times all year, compared to 69 wins. His 69th win was a come-from-behind win against Viktor Troicki. By playing in Paris even though his shoulder injury is clearly not recovered from his shocking loss to Kei Nishikori last Saturday in Switzerland, the World #1 won a $1.6 million bonus from the ATP for playing in the Paris Masters as part of an incentive for the top players to play all 8 Masters tournaments in a year. Djokovic had already wthdrawn from the Shanghai Masters so if he withdrew from Paris his potential $2 million bonus for winning the most Masters series titles in 2011would have been reduced to nothing. Djokovic's 2011 winnings are well above $10 million because he has won 3 Major titles and 5 Masters series titles so far. His financial haul could increase even more if he does well at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals which start on Sunday November 20th in London.

Meanwhile back in Paris, World #4 Roger Federer is the highest remaining seed left in the only Masters tournament he has never won in his long storied career. He will face Tomas Berdych (who eliminated World #3 Andy Murray) in one semifinal while Isner and Tsonga face off in the other. A Federer-Tsonga final on Sunday in Paris would be an incredible moment.

Federer Beats Nishikori To Win 68th Title

Harold Cunningham/Getty Images

World #4 Roger Federer won his 2nd title of 2011, the 68th of his majestic career, by defeating Kei Nishikori  6-1 6-3 in Basel, Switzerland. Nishikori spoiled a 3rd consecutive year of Swiss Indoor Championship final matches between Novak Djokovic and Federer when the Japanese player handed the Serbian only his 4th defeat of the year in the semifinals. Nishikori pulled off the most stunning upset of the year by coming back from a set down to beat the World's #1 player 3-6 7-6(4) 6-0, the first player from Asia to defeat a current #1 since Paradorn Srichapan defeated Lleyton Hewitt in 2001.  Federer defeated his countryman Stanislas Wawrinka 7-6(5) 6-2 in the other semifinal and notched his 21st win in 23 matches against Andy Roddick in the quarterfinals. Nishikori's path to the final included Top 10 player Tomas Berdych in the first round who he beat 3-6 6-3 6-2. The tournament was struck by a shocking amount of withdrawals, including Andy Murray and Robin Soderling.

The last Masters 1000 tournament of the year starts Monday in the Bercy suburbs of Paris. It is possible that the only player from the Top 5 in the World playing it will be Federer, as Rafael Nadal announced earlier that he was withdrawing to concentrate on the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London, where he has never done very well.

Cincy Final: Djokovic vs Murray

Novak Djokovic improved to an amazing 57-1 record for the year when Tomas Berdych retired after dropping the last 3 games of the first set to lose it 7-5. Berdych had bested Roger Federer the day before but ha withdrawn from his doubles match afterwards and after about 8 games against Djokovic he basically could no longer hit the ball due to his injured shoulder.

The other semifinal match up between Mardy Fish and Andy Murray was a much more interesting affair. Murray was clearly the better in the first set, with Fish not showing the tennis that led to his stunning straight-sets defeat of World #2 Rafael Nadal. However, after winning the first set 6-3 Murray repeatedly relinquished service breaks until a second set tiebreak which was of high quality. Fish led 4-2 at the change over but Murray battled back to 5-all and then the most bizarre thing happened at the 8-7  match point, Fish serving. Fish hit a good first serve and Murray (mis)hit a service return which looked like it dropped in the corner, kissing the side line for a clear winner. Both players sheepishly approached the net and Fish challenged the (in) line call and the electronic review showed the ball had actually fallen out. 8-all instead of match over. However, the match did end two points later, with a forehand service error from Fish.

Djokovic and Murray will face each other for the fourth time in a final, with Murray leading 2-1 but Djokovic easily won their meeting at the 2011 Australian Open earlier this year and leads their career head-to-head 6-3 (which is a surprisingly low total considering how long these two have both been at the top echelons of tennis simultaneously).

Djokovic is clearly mentally tired and Murray has been playing well. Before Federer handed Djokovic his one loss all year in the French Open semifinals in Paris, Murray nearly beat the Serbian in a 3-set thriller in Rome. I would not be surprised if Murray wins tomorrow, probably in three sets.

Federer and Nadal Bounced From Cincy Quarters

At the Cincinnati Masters tournament World #3 Roger Federer and World #2 Rafael Nadal lost on the same day, to lower ranked by Top 10 opponents, Tomas Berdych and Mardy Fish, respectively. Nadal's loss was not unexpected, coming off of a hard-fought triple tie-break match with Fernando Verdasco that lasted 3 hours, 38 minutes. With his first win in 7 tries against Nadal, American Mardy Fish clinched his finish at the top of the US Open Series standings, potentially earning a $1 million bonus if he wins the US Open, which begins on Monday August 29.

World #1 Novak Djokovic lost the first set against Gael Monfils 6-3 and looked mentally tired doing so but came back to win the next two sets 6-4 6-3. He will play a semifinal against Berdych while Fish plays Andy Murray in the other semifinal.

SHOCK! Nadal Loses 2nd Consecutive Match

World #2 Rafael Nadal lost his second match in a row for the first time since 2009 when he went down 1-6 6-7(5) 6-7(5) against Croatian Ivan Dodig at the Rogers Masters tournament in Quebec. World #3 Roger Federer, who turned 30 years old on Monday August 8, and World #1 Novak Djokovic both won their first matches since Wimbledon easily in straight sets.

Djokovic improved to a stratospheric 49-1 for the year, having won 7 titles including the Australian Open (d. Murray) and Wimbledon (d. Nadal) while Federer is at 40-9 with only one title but also one very important victory over Djokovic (at the French Open). Next up for Federer is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who eliminated him in the Wimbledon quarterfinals this year.

World #4 Andy Murray also lost his first match back, despite winning this title the last 2 years in a row. Still in the tournament are Juan Martin del Potro, Tomas Berdych and Gael Monfils.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Men's Final Preview

Novak Djokovic SRB (2) vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (1)

How They Got Here.
Novak Djokovic played the most entertaining match of the fortnight against Jo-Wifried Tsonga, who was trying to repeat the amazing level of play which allowed him to dismiss 6-time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer in 5-sets after dropping the first two by dropping his serve in the first game of the match and holding serve in twenty-four consecutive service games to beat the Swiss great 3-6 6-7(3) 6-4 6-4 6-4. Djokovic was pushed by Tsonga to four sets, eventually winning 7-6(4) 6-2 6-7(9) 6-3. Tsonga mounted a challenge despite being down 4-2 in the 3rd set after winning an amazing exchange where both combatants ended face down on the grass. The crowd applauded ecstatically which caused both players to relax. This was a plus for Tsonga and a minus for Djokovic who was broken in the next service game and then lost a tight tiebrekaer despite having two match points.

Rafael Nadal has now won 20 matches in a row at Wimbledon dating back to his 2007 five-set  loss in the final to Federer. Although Andy Murray was able to win the first set 7-5 through aggressive play (and an uncharacteristically sloppy sixth service game by Nadal). This was incredibly important moment for the Scot's tennis future to show that he could win a set against Nadal in a crucial match but  Murray had a momentary mental lapse (hitting a sitter overhead meters out of the court) which led to an early break in the second set. That, combined with an apparent groin injury made the result of the match very clear as the third and fourth sets slipped away quckly. The result was a 5-7 6-2 6-2 6-4 win to place the Spaniard in his 5th consecutive Wimbledon final (skipping the 2009 tournament due to injury).

The Match Up
Head-to-head Nadal leads Djokovic 16-11, but the Serbian has played Nadal in 4 finals this year and won every time, including (shockingly!) two wins in clay court finals (in Madrid and Rome). The only person who has beaten Djokovic in over seven months is Roger Federer, after playing some of the best clay court tennis he has ever exhibited in Paris this yearin the semifinals of Roland Garros. Let me repeat that: Djokovic has won 47 matches in 2011 and only lost one. Can he continue his amazing run now that he has had to play at a stratospheric level of near-perfection to reach his lifetime goal of becoming World #1? How long can he possibly maintain this form? Can anyone possibly beat Nadal in five consecutive finals?

The first thing Nadal mention is that this match is played at a major so it is the first time during Djokovic's streak they are playing best-of-five-sets tennis. It is also a historic moment, the winner of the first major of 2011 playing against the winner of the second major of 2011. Nadal unquestionably has more experience at this level; Djokovic is only playing in his 5th major final, where he has won 2 (against Tsonga in the 2008 Australian Open final and against Murray in the 2011 Australian final) and lost two (2007 US Open final to Federer and 2010 US Open final to Nadal). Nadal is in his 13th major final, sporting an impressive 10-2 record, with the two losses in finals coming here at Wimbledon in 2006 and 2007 to the third member of the historic "trivalry," Roger Federer.

Mentally, I believe Djokovic has the edge in Sunday's match. Nadal hasn't even really been close in the last two matches they have played on clay which has got to worry him at important moments, especially if Djokovic gets off to a quick start. The only major finals Nadal has ever lost have been on grass and although Djokovic has never won a set against Nadal on the surface, Nadal knows that person he played then (in the 2007 Wimbledon semifinal and the 2008 Queens club final) is not the same person he will be facing on Sunday. That streak will almost certainly end.

The ATP website has a very interesting summary of the two player's performances at Wimbledon to date which seems to indicate Nadal has played at a slightly higher level. Nadal has an astonishing 113 forehand winners and (a paltry) 29 backhand winners compared to 35 forehand errors and 19 backhand errors. Djokovic has 62 forehand winners and 49 backhand errors compared to 46 forehand errors and 37 backhand errors. Nadal is listed as having had an amazing 244 winners and 60 errors (+184) over 6 rounds while Djokovic has a mere 199 winners and 99 errors (+100).

Their serves are equivalently effective: Nadal is serving at 70% in while Djokovic is at 68%. The Spaniard has served 44 aces to 6 double faults while the Serbian has served 54 aces and 15 double faults, which is basically about even.

Who Will Win

I tend to go with the idea that the person with the more effective serve will win the match unless the serve can be counteracted by superior movement and better service returning. With serves basically at a draw, I give Nadal the slight edge in movement but Djokovic the edge in returning. I believe the match will be very very close, probably on the level of the incredible Wimbledon finals of 2008 (Greatest Match Of All Time won by Nadal over Federer) and 2009 (won by Federer over Andy Roddick).

MadProfessah's Prediction: Djokovic in 3 or 4 sets OR Nadal in 5 sets.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Roger Federer                                                   © AELTC/S.Wake

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011. Last year's I correctly predicted the results of 1 of 4 men's quarterfinals right before I got on a plane to London to attend the men's final. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Tomas Berdych CZE (6) Mardy Fish USA (10). Who would have thought that the last American player remaining in the draw at Wimbledon deep in the second week would be Mardy Fish? The American took out last year's Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych by exposing the 6'5" Czech mobility deficit with blistering groundstrokes into the corners and confident volleys following very big serves. Nadal was lucky to escape his meeting with Juan Martin del Potro in the 4th round but did not come away unscathed; apparently there is a foot or heel injury which is invisible to MRIs but which caused Nadal to take a 9-minute injury time-out at 6-all in the first set. The 2-time defending champion won that 1st set tie-break (despite being 0-3 down) and went on to win the match 7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4. Mardy has only one won set against Nadal in 5 career meetings, but all of their matches were played before Fish transformed himself by losing 30 pounds and dedicating himself to fitness. The results have been extraordinary: he is now the top rated American male and will likely be so for the foreseeable future. Unless Nadal's injury plays a factor, I still don't see Fish advancing from his first Wimbledon quarterfinal to his first Wimbledon semifinal. PREDICTION: Nadal.

Andy Murray GBR (4) vs. Feliciano Lopez ESP. The only drama in this match will be who will be the first to mention the "controversy" that one of the player's parents finds the other player attractive. Feliciano Lopez is definitely an excellent grass-court player and is unquestionably one of the most handsome players on the tour. He is in his third career Wimbledon quarterfinal, which is the furthest he has ever been in any major.  In 2011 he has already achieved a number of firsts, including having a match point against Roger Federer and defeating Andy Roddick for the first time. That being said, Murray has the hopes of a nation on his shoulders and after a surprisingly good result at this year's French Open appears to be comfortable with pressure he faces to play his best tennis in SW19. Murray has yet to lose on grass this year. He knows he could have played much better in his 2010 Wimbledon semifinal against Nadal last year and wants another chance. I think he'll get it. PREDICTION: Murray.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (12) vs. Roger Federer SUI (3). This match should be the best of the 2011 Men's Quarterfinals at Wimbledon. Tsonga is a very good grass-court player, playing (but losing) a very good final against Murrayat the Queen's Club. Tsonga actually has a win against Federer (on hard courts) and has only played the Swiss Maestro 5 times so the career head-to-head deficit is not overwhelming. However, the fact that he will be playing Living History, the man who is in his 29th(!) consecutive major quarterfinal  and is trying to win this tournament for a record-tying 7th time must be daunting. Interestingly, since Tsonga had to play Grigor "Baby Fed" Dimitrov earlier in the tournament he may feel well-prepared to handle the real Federer on the big stage this time. Federer was able to dismiss Mikhail Youzhny in four sets after inexplicably dropping the first set tie-break after holding a 4-2 lead at the change over but he really didn't look comfortable to me despite the 6-7(5) 6-3 6-3 6-3 scoreline. Youzhny is a crafty veteran but he does not possess the firepower to really give Federer difficulties at crucial moments. Tsonga does. That being said Federer is aiming for his 27th major semifinal and 22nd major final. I believe that he will reach both. PREDICTION: Federer. 

Bernard Tomic AUS  vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). For the first time in 25 years one of the men's quarterfinalists is an 18-year-old, Bernard Tomic. Australians, especially his father, have been talking up Tomic's talent for years so it is impressive the youngster has matched a feat last achieve by Boris Becker. But there the similarities end. Tomic's game is like Murray 2.0 when he was 18: lots of different spins, excellent movement, full of guile and almost zero aggression.  It is not an attractive picture. Djokovic, despite only losing one match (out of 46 played!) all year long, has progressed through the draw like a ninja, silently dispatching his opponents by gliding around the court, seeming to do very little only to see the vanquished drop to the ground, defeated. He had a slight hiccup against a game Marcos Baghdatis, but one never really believed that the World's #2 was in any danger of losing. I have a very similar feeling about this match. Most likely for the second major in a row, the Top 4 players will reach the semifinals.   PREDICTION: Djokovic.