Nadal Leads Spain To 2011 Davis Cup Victory

From left to right: Fernando Verdasco, Feliciano Lopez, David Ferrer, Rafael Nadal,
Marcos Granollers and Spain's Davis Cup Captain Albert Costa. (AFP Photo/Cristina Quicler)

Yesterday World #2 Rafael Nadal powered his country of Spain to a 3-1 win in the Davis Cup final for the third time in his career, 5th time overall for Spain. Nadal whipped Juan Monaco on Argentina 6-1 6-1 6-2 and then came back from a set down to close out the tie by defeating Juan Martin del Potro 1-6 6-4 6-1 7-6(0) on clay in Seville, Spain. World #5 David Ferrer also contributed to his country's victory by outlasting del Potro in a gruelling 6-2, 6-7(2), 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 five-set win.

Nadal had helped Spain win the 2004 Davis Cup over the United States in 2004 (as a teenager) and in 2008 over Argentina. Argentina becomes the first country to reach the final tie four times without a victory. The 6-time Roland Garros champion is not known as "The King of Clay" for nothing; despite suffering his most lopsided loss of a set on the surface in years, Nadal was able to devise a solution to the hard-hitting, 6'6" Argentinian and maintain his incredible record of only 7 clay court losses in professional play in his career. Beating Spain on clay, with Nadal, Ferrer, Verdasco, Lopez and the rest of "the Spanish Armada" is an almost impossible proposition for any country, as Spain proved once again on Sunday. Their only loss of a point in the match-up with Argentina was when David Nalbandian and Eduardo Schwank were able to defeat the doubles team of Lopez and Verdasco (hubba hubba!)

Nishikori Stuns Djokovic In Basel Semis

Wow! For only the fourth time this year World #1 Novak Djokovic did not win an ATP Tour match after stepping on to the court. He lost to Asia's best male player, Kei Nishikori of Japan 3-6 7-6(4) 6-0. Djokovic was two points from the win receiving 4-5, 0-30 in the second set but his the speedy Japanese playerwas able to track it down and go on to win the tiebreaker; the Serbian only won 10 points in the final set, losing his only bagel set of the year.

Djokovic was clearly not at his best, playing in his first tournament in 6 weeks, and received treatment for a right shoulder injury after winning the first set, the same injury that caused him to retire during his match with Andy Murray at the Cincinnati Open this summer.

In fact, of the four matches Djokovic has lost in 2011, half of them have been to retirements (the loss to Murray in Cincinnati and lost to Juan Martin del Potro in the Davis Cup semifinal). The loss to Nishikori was only the second full match Djokovic has lost all year, out of 72 matches played the Serbian has won 68 (plus a 69th win due to a controversial walk-over in the French Open quarterfinals over the pulchritudinous Fabio Fognini). Roger Federer was the only person to beat Djokovic at a grand slam best-of-5-sets match all year long, doing so in the semifinals in four sets.

Djokovic is likely to pull out of the Paris Masters event starting in Bercy on Monday, but should be okay for the World ATP Tour Finals in London starting November 20th.

Congratulations to Nishikori, who will be playing for his second tour title against either Federer or Stanislas Wawrinka.

Djokovic's Body Fails Him

In last week's Davis Cup matches, World #1 Novak Djokovic was unable to carry his team to victory, unlike last year. Djokovic retired from Serbia's semi-final tie with Argentina, allowing the South American country to reach another Davis Cup final. It should be interesting to see if the difference in results will have an impact on Djokovic's 2012 (or perhaps even the rest of 2011).

Argentina's Juan Martin del Potro was his country's Davis Cup hero, and they will face the indomitable Spain in the final tie in December which will of course be on red dirt in Spain, presumably Madrid. World #2 Rafael Nadal, who Djokovic has beaten in 6 very important finals this year so far, was devastatingly effective against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet, serving up a bagel set in each of his straight set thrashings of the French players.

World #3 Roger Federer boarded a plane to Australia a mere hours after his heart-wrenching loss to Djokovic in the U.S. Open semifinals (up two match points for the second consecutive year) and to try and get Switzerland back into the Davis Cup World Group (and confirm his eligibility for next year's London Olympics. Switzerland was able to win their tie 3-2 with Federer contributing wins over Bernard Tomic and Lleyton Hewit and then teaming up with Stanislas Wawrinka to lose a tight doubles match against Hewitt and Chris Guccione. Wawrinka became the star for the Swiss team when he won a 5-set match against Hewitt 6-3 (after the match was suspended for darkness at 5-3!) to clinch the win for the Swiss and eliminate the Australians.

It will be interesting to see what impact, if any, these Davis Cup results have on the 2012 Grand Slam results (and the 2012 London Olympics).

US OPEN 2011: Men's Quarterfinals & R16 Preview

Due to a complete rain out of play on Tuesday September 7 the men's draw has been thrown into disarray. Because the US Open is the only major which does not have a day off between the semifinals and final, losing a day in which quarterfinals were supposed to be played complicates things dramatically.

Last year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 2010 men's quarterfinals and 4 of 4 2010 women's quarterfinals.
My predictions for the 2011 women's quarterfinals are also available. Below are my predictions for the two of the 2011 men's quarterfinals hat are set (and four of the Round of 16 matches).

The plan for today, Day 10 of the 2011 US Open, is to both finish off playing the last four round of 16 matches (which just happens to feature three American players: John Isner, Donald Young and Andy Roddick) AND the first two men's quarterfinals, on the same day.

Novak Djokovic SRB (1) v. Janko Tipsarevic SRB (20). The World #1 has only lost two matches all year long, and is having one of the all-time great seasons, with a record of 61 win, 9 tournament titles (including 2 majors). It's true that Djokovic almost lost his first set of the tournament in difficult conditions against the funky game of Aleksandr Dologopolov but that does not reflect any diminution in his powers. Tipsarevic is a player whose game Djokovic knows well, since they are from the same country and are fellow Davis Cup team members. Tipsarevic is a very smart player and knows how to be dangerous but it is very doubtful he can end Djokovic's streak in his very first major quarterfinal appearance unless Novak is having a very very bad day. PREDICTION: Djokovic.


 Roger Federer SUI (3) v. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (11). This is the best potential quarterfinal match up and should probably be the best match of this action-packed day. Federer is in his jaw-dropping 30th consecutive major quarterfinal while Tsonga is in his 6th quarterfinal of his career, and his first in New York City, a major which Federer has won more times (5) than Tsonga has been in the draw (4). Because of his injuries and absences from the sport Federer and Tsonga have only met 7 times, 4 of which have come this year, with 2 wins each. However, Tsonga has won the last two times they played, including an amazing result at Wimbledon where he came from 2-sets down to beat Roger in 5, the first time ANYONE had ever done that at a major tournament, let alone on Roger's best surface of grass (which is probably also Tsonga's best surface). So clearly Tsonga now does have the game to beat Roger and can do it if he is playing his best while Roger is not. Happily for Federer, the Swiss showed that he still has some of his best tennis left in him when he dismantled Juan Monaco 6-1 6-2 6-0 in a late-night match prior to Tuesday's deluge. Federer also enjoys a challenge, as evidenced by his glee in handling Djokovic his first loss of the year in Paris to end the Serb's undefeated season. I believe tonight's match will be very close, almost definitely 4 or 5 sets, with Federer coming through for a rematch with Djokovic in the semifinals on Saturday. PREDICTION: Federer.


The following fourth round matches are also being completed today.

Gilles Simon FRA (12) v. John Isner USA (28). For the second round in a row French counterpuncher Simon is taking on a giant, huge serving player. Simon was able to dismiss 6'6" 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro in four sets on Sunday (which I watched from the fourth row courside in Armstrong) while 6'9" John Isner was able to overcome stiff resistance from speedy Alex Bogomolov, Jr. Simon is a much better player than Bogomolov and unless Isner plays very well, he will face the same fate as Del Potro.This is the match where Isner needs to prove he is not just (in the words of Roger Federer, about another huge-serving American) "a great server" but a great player. Having also seen Isner play close up (from first row courtside in Armstrong) I would say he is not yet a great player, though he is a great competitor. That might be enough against the Frenchman, but I doubt it. PREDICTION: Simon.


Donald Young USA v. Andy Murray GBR (4). Amazingly, the young African American phenom has a win this year over a player named Andy Murray. However, that Andy Murray was recovering from his 3rd consecutive major final loss and is not the same player who handed new World #1 Novak Djokovic only his second loss of the season a few short weeks ago in Cincinnati. Young has finally lived up to his potential to reach the last 16 of a major tournament for the first time, beating 2 seeded players Juan Ignacio Chela (24) and Stanislas Wawrinka (14). By reaching the 4th round Young will receive the largest paycheck of his career. Hopefully he uses it wisely to invest in his game so that his 2011 US Open results are just the beginning of good results and not a fluke. PREDICTION: Murray.


David Ferrer ESP (5) v. Andy Roddick USA (21). This is the toughest match for me to predict in this round. I have not been that impressed with Roddick'splay and I haven't seen a single point of Ferrer's. But I know the Spaniard is always a rough customer, and against Roddick he leads their career head-to-head 5-3 including two crucial Davis Cup wins for Spain over USA (one from 2011). Presumably, Roddick will try and turn this encounter into a home court advantage Davis Cup match as well, but can his 29-year-old game match up to Ferrer's feistiness? PREDICTION: Ferrer.


Gilles Muller LUX v. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). Nadal will be interested in making a statement about his fitness after the world saw him cramping up after a press conference after his last match. Muller will be lucky to win a handful of games in each of the three sets played. PREDICTION: Nadal.

US OPEN 2011: Djokovic Seeded #1

Yesterday I talked about the ridiculous seeding that USTA gave to 3-time US Open champion Serena Williams by placing her at #28 when most people believe she is the odds-on favorite to win her 14th major there this year.

On the men's side things were far less eventful, with the seedings generally following the ATP rankings.
It does mark the first time since 2003 that either Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal has not been seeded #1 at the US Open, and it is the new #1, Novak Djokovic who takes a stunning 57-2 record for the year into the final major of the year, having won 2 of the 3 so far.

France has an incredible four players in the top 12 and three of them are bolded, indicating they are players to watch who could make some noise at this years Open,which starts on Monday. Spain has three in the Top 10. The players in blue are the ones I expect to win the title on Sunday September 10 and 11. It could very well depends on the draw, which will be known tomorrow.

Men's singles
1. Novak Djokovic (SRB), 2. Rafael Nadal (ESP), 3. Roger Federer (SUI), 4. Andy Murray (GBR), 5. David Ferrer (ESP), 6. Robin Soderling (SWE), 7. Gael Monfils (FRA), 8. Mardy Fish (USA), 9. Tomas Berdych (CZE), 10. Nicolas Almagro (ESP), 11. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA), 12. Gilles Simon (FRA), 13. Richard Gasquet (FRA), 14. Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI), 15. Viktor Troicki (SRB), 16. Mikhail Youzhny (RUS), 17. Jurgen Melzer (AUT), 18. Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG), 19. Fernando Verdasco (ESP), 20. Janko Tipsarevic (SRB), 21. Andy Roddick (USA), 22. Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR), 23. Radek Stepanek (CZE), 24. Juan Ignacio Chela (ARG), 25. Feliciano Lopez (ESP), 26. Florian Mayer (GER), 27. Marin Cilic (CRO), 28. John Isner (USA), 29. Michael Llodra (FRA), 30. Ivan Ljubicic (CRO), 31. Marcel Granollers (ESP), 32. Ivan Dodig (CRO)

Women's singles
1. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN), 2. Vera Zvonareva (RUS), 3. Maria Sharapova (RUS), 4. Victoria Azarenka (BLR), 5. Petra Kvitova (CZE), 6. Li Na (CHN), 7. Francesca Schiavone (ITA), 8. Marion Bartoli (FRA), 9. Samantha Stosur (AUS), 10. Andrea Petkovic (GER), 11. Jelena Jankovic (SRB), 12. Agnieszka Radwanska (POL), 13. Peng Shuai (CHN), 14. Dominika Cibulkova (SVK), 15. Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS), 16. Ana Ivanovic (SRB), 17. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS), 18. Roberta Vinci (ITA), 19. Julia Goerges (GER), 20. Yanina Wickmayer (BEL), 21. Daniela Hantuchova (SVK), 22. Sabine Lisicki (GER), 23. Shahar Peer (ISR), 24. Nadia Petrova (RUS), 25. Maria Kirilenko (RUS), 26. Flavia Pennetta (ITA), 27. Lucie Safarova (CZE), 28. Serena Williams (USA), 29. Jarmila Gajdosova (AUS), 30. Anabel Medina Garrigues (ESP), 31. Kaia Kanepi (EST), 32. Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez (ESP)

SHOCK! Nadal Loses 2nd Consecutive Match

World #2 Rafael Nadal lost his second match in a row for the first time since 2009 when he went down 1-6 6-7(5) 6-7(5) against Croatian Ivan Dodig at the Rogers Masters tournament in Quebec. World #3 Roger Federer, who turned 30 years old on Monday August 8, and World #1 Novak Djokovic both won their first matches since Wimbledon easily in straight sets.

Djokovic improved to a stratospheric 49-1 for the year, having won 7 titles including the Australian Open (d. Murray) and Wimbledon (d. Nadal) while Federer is at 40-9 with only one title but also one very important victory over Djokovic (at the French Open). Next up for Federer is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who eliminated him in the Wimbledon quarterfinals this year.

World #4 Andy Murray also lost his first match back, despite winning this title the last 2 years in a row. Still in the tournament are Juan Martin del Potro, Tomas Berdych and Gael Monfils.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011.

Last year I predicted 1 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly and 0 of 2 men's semifinals correctly. This year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals, 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. 

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Andy Murray GBR (4). For the second year in a row, Andy Murray's goal to win his country's Grand Slam must go through World #1 Rafael Nadal.

 Head-to-head Nadal leads 11-4 with a 2-0 record on grass (2010 Wimbledon semifinal and 2008 Wimbledon quarterfinal). With Nadal allegedly not at 100 percent fit to play (a claim I am somewhat skeptical of) I think this gives Murray the best chance he has ever had to date to end the long drought of having a male British citizen appear in the Wimbledon final, let alone actually win the bloody thing. The four times Murray has beaten Nadal he has done it on hard courts with very strong serving, combined with first strike tennis using the forehand cross-court and the backhand down-the-line to Nadal's backhand. Murray is an excellent defender and loves to play long grueling points to demonstrate his fitness and mentally exhaust his opponents. This is exactly the wrong game plan against the (almost psychotically) mentally tough Spaniard.

Nadal has lost four consecutive times to Novak Djokovic this year because Djokovic has been getting multiple free points on his improved serve and is ridiculously flexible and strong enough to convert balls hit from defensive positions instantaneously  into offense. Murray can get free points on his serve if he serves well (i.e. in the 130 mph) but he shouldn't even THINK about playing defense. The way to beat Nadal is relatively clear: you have to bash him off of a very fast court (c.f. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's 2008 Australian Open semifinal win, Juan Martin del Potro's 2009 U.S. Open semifinal win, Murray's own 2010 Australian Open quarterfinal win).

Basically you have to be prepared to hit 4 or 5 winners to win a single point and not get frustrated about doing it for two or three hours. Murray has been in 3 career Grand Slam finals so far and has failed to win a set in any of them. For all intents and purposes, this semifinal (just like last year's Wimbledon semifinal) is even more important than a final to Murray's career. So, if past performance is a predictor of future performance, Murray will under-perform his ability and lose in 3 sets to Nadal again. However, I strongly believe that Murray is getting closer and closer to a breakthrough and one indication was his strong showing in the 2011 French Open semifinal against Nadal (which Murray lost in straight sets but he had a LOT of chances, which he was unable to convert). I believe he will take that experience of having opportunities in Paris and the strong crowd support in London to give him a very decent chance to win this match and warm the hearts of a nation. PREDICTION: Nadal in 3 OR Murray in 4 or 5 sets.

Roger Federer SUI (3) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (12) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2).

This is also a match which is "bigger" than a Grand Slam final, to one of the competitors (Djokovic), at least. If the Serb wins, he will be ranked World #1 for the first time in his career. If the Frenchman wins he would be the first of his countrymen to be in the Wimbledon final in the Open era. There are far fewer men (24) who have been ranked World #1 at some point since the rankings began in 1973 than have won a major final in that time period (almost 60).  It just so happens that this match-up is a reprise of the 2008 Australian Open final, won by Djokovic, but since that first encounter Tsonga has won 5 of 6 matches the two have played, including a stunning 5-set win in the 2010 Australian Open quarterfinals. The 2008 Australian Open final is an instructive match to analyze in understanding the dynamics between the two players because then, like now, Tsonga is coming off the biggest win of his career (in 2008 a surprisingly vicious beat down of Nadal in the Australian Open semifinal, in 2011 a stunning dismissal of Roger Federer in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon).

Then, Tsonga didn't start the match playing his best tennis until the second set and Djokovic exploited the lead to run away with the match and the title. However, it must be noted that what Tsonga achieved Roger Federer had not happened in 178 of the Swiss Great's 5-set Grand Slam matches--he lost the first two sets and then won the match (rather comfortably) with an early service break in each subsequent set and denying his opponent even a sniff at breaking his own.

Djokvic is a much better service returner than Federer so it's doubtful that strategy will work again but Tsonga has so much talent there are others that could work (serve and volley as much as possible, deny pace to Djokovic and then suddenly blast the ball for a winner) and most of all, Tsonga believes he can win. Djokovic has played 47 matches so far in 2011 and won 46 of them. This is an astonishing feat. Lately, his opponents have gotten closer and the new unbeatable Djokovic has shown some of the familiar tics of the old, retiring Djokovic, but I still believe that somehow, Nole will find a way to fulfill his destiny and win the match and reach the pinnacle of men's tennis.  PREDICTION: Djokovic.  

WIMBLEDON 2011:Williamses, Top 4 Men, Delpo In To R16

Novak Djokovic won a tension-filled 3rd round
4-set match against Marcos Baghdatis

Wimbledon is the only major which does not generally have play on the "middle" Sunday. So, after Saturday's play on Day 6, here is an update.

The Top 4 players in the world, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are all through to the round of 16 at the 2011 Wimbledon Championships. World #5 Robin Soderling  and World #8 Andy Roddick have been upset. #6 seed Tomas Berdych and #7 seed David Ferrer are still in the tournament, as is 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro.


World #1 Caroline Wozniacki, #4 seed Victoria Azarenka, #5 Maria Sharapova, #7 Serena Williams, #8 Petra Kvitova and #9 Marion Bartoli are all in the round of 16. 2010 Wimbledon finalist Vera Zvonareva and 2011 French Open finalist Francesca Schiavone both lost on Day 6.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Woz, Stosur Upset! Raja, Gael, Gasquet In R16

Daniela Hantuchova celebrates her defeat of World #1 Caroline Wozniacki at the 2011 French Open

For the first time since 1971 in the era of Open tennis, the two top seeds on the women side have been eliminated in a major tournament before the 4th round. World #1 Caroline Wozniacki followed World #2 Kim Clijsters exit yesterday by being swept off the court 6-1 6-3 by hard-hitting, mentally fragile Daniela Hantuchova. Wozniacki has been #1 despite being in only one major final (which she lost to Clijsters). Hantuchova will face 2009 French Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova for a quarterfinal berth. Another stunning upset on the women's side was the disappearance of 2010 French Open finalist Samantha Stosur who got outplayed by Gisela Dulko 6-4 1-6 6-3. Vera Zvonareva, Jelea Jankovic and defending champion Francesca Schiavone all advanced to the round of 16.

On the men's side the marquee match of the tournament between the only players besides Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal to have won a major title in the last 5 years was scheduled last on for the day and thus had to be stopped completely even with Novak Djokovic winning the first set 6-3 and Juan Martín del Potro returning the favor. They will play a best of 3-sets tomorrow after a women's match. Djokovic has a 39-match winning streak on the line against someone who everyone acknowledges is a Top 5-level player even though he is currently seeded #25. Frenchmen Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils are in the final 16 at their hometown tournament but unfortunately their third musketeer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was unable to join them despite winning the first two sets against Stanislas Wawrinka, who will play Federer in the fourth round. Monfils will face David Ferrer who has not dropped a set all tournament for a potential quarterfinal berth against Federer. Gasquet has the unenviable task of playing the winner of the Del Potro-Djokovic encounter.

2011 FRENCH OPEN: Top Seeds Proceed Thru Draw

Getty

The highlight of the first round at the 2011 French Open was 5-time defending champion and World #1 Rafael Nadal being stretched to 5 sets by Marathon Man John Isner, 6-4 6-7(2) 6-7(2)  6-2 6-4. Other than that (slight) excitement, the seeds have basically come through the early round unscathed.

On the men's side Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, David Ferrer are all through to Round 3. Tomas Berdych and Nicolas Almagro are the only seeds from the Top 16 to have lost in the first round. Djokovic's streak is now up to 39 matches for the year, although he will play 2009 US Open champion Juan Martín del Potro in the 3rd round.

On the women's side none of the Top 17(!) seeds lost in the first round. Caroline Wozniacki, Vera Zvonareva, 2010 French Open champion Francesca Schiavione, Samantha Stosur, Jelena Jankovic, Marion Bartoli and 2009 French Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova have all made it to the third round. 2008 French Open champion Ana Ivanovic lost in the first round, completing a "grand slam" of first round losses at the majors. An interesting 3rd round match should be Wozniacki versus Daniela Hantuchova.