NM: Plurality Support For Marriage Equality

A new PPP poll out of New Mexico shows that more people support marriage equality than oppose it. The key questions are:

Q7 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal ...................... .45%
Illegal ..................... .43%
Not sure ................. .12%

Q8 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple's relationship?
Gay couples should
be allowed to legally
marry.......................42%
Gay couples should
be allowed to form
civil unions but not
marry.......................25%
There should be no
legal recognition of
a gay couple's
relationship .............32%
Not sure ................. . 2%

Thus New Mexico joins other Western states like Colorado and Nevada where other recent polls show plurality support for marriage equality. Unfortunately, unless and until polls start showing majority support for marriage equality (outside the margin of error, which in this case was +/-4.4 points) the LGBT community is unlikely to have a decent chance winning a ballot measure fight to end civil marriage discrimination against same-sex couples.

POLL: Huge Majority Supports LGBT Workplace Equality

A new poll commissioned by Human Rights Campaign confirms that the vast majority of Americans believes that employment discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity should be illegal.

The poll found a vast majority (77 percent) of voters support protecting LGBT people from discrimination in employment.  The support for employment protections defies conventional political wisdom, reaching across party and ideological lines.  Seventy percent of self-identified Republicans and 67 percent of conservatives support anti-discrimination laws.  Support is strong even among groups who tend to be less supportive of LGBT issues, such as seniors (69 percent among voters over age 65), those with a high school degree or less (68 percent), observant Christians (77 percent), born-again Christians (74 percent), and residents of the Deep South (72 percent). 

In a finding showing a need for more public outreach and education for employment non-discrimination laws, most voters believe anti-discrimination laws already exist.  Eighty-seven percent of voters believe it is illegal under federal law to fire someone for being gay and 78 percent believe it is illegal under state law.  Even in states without anti-discrimination laws, 75 percent of voters think it is illegal under state law to fire someone for being gay or lesbian. 

Of course there is pending federal legislation called the Employment Non-Discrimination Act which would actually make the law comport with what most people believe the law is already: illegal to fire workers because they are LGBT.

But it is absolutely unlikely to pass Congress while the Republicans control the majority of the U.S. House.

POLL: Californians Favor Marriage Equality (Barely)

A new poll again shows that Californians strongly support legal protections and state recognition of same-sex couples but are also closely divided on the question of whether to allow such unions to be given the legal name "marriages."

Public Policy Polling did a statewide poll of 500 California voters between November 10-13 which had the following questions:

Q11 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal............................................................... 48%
Illegal .............................................................. 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Q12 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple's relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ..............................................................43%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry .......................................35%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple's relationship .......................................21%
Not sure .......................................................... 1%

The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. This is more evidence that people who think that 2012 is the right time to attempt to repeal Proposition 8 are fooling themselves. I do think that there are more Californians who support marriage equality than not, but the polling shows that the difference is well within the margin of error.

One of my pre-conditions for attempting a Proposition 8 repeal by ballot measure is multiple polls of likely voters which indicate majority support for marriage equality outside of the margin of error. That polling result is yet to occur in California, though I do believe it will happen soon. (By the way, the other pre-conditions are: A 7-figure amount in the bank at the beginning of a ballot measure campaign AND a public, published plan with a representational organizational structure for the entity which will manage the ballot measure campaign.)

Approval of Congress Hits Single Digits (9%!)

Godless Wednesday: Americans' Discomfort With Atheist President

The Friendly Atheist has a great post up today discussing the new poll results from the Public Religion Research Institute which demonstrate that Americans would be more uncomfortable with an atheist President than a Mormon President or a Muslim President!

Friendly Atheist takes a closer look at the graphic above and provides the following analysis:

67% of all voters would feel somewhat or very uncomfortable with an atheist president.80% of all Republicans, 70% of Democrats, and 56% of all Independents feel the same.So Democrats would be more uncomfortable with an atheist president than a Muslim president.
Republicans — not surprisingly, a higher proportion of them than Democrats — would be equally uncomfortable with both an atheist president and a Muslim president.
Overall, though, a non-theistic presidential candidate has a bigger hurdle to overcome than a person of any faith at all. It’s unbelievable that in this day and age, America still has this much of a hangup over a leader who would put more weight in evidence and logical thinking than in an imaginary god and ancient books.

Hear, hear! Friendly Atheist also notes that 31% of Americans would be somewhat or very comfortable with an atheist president while 33% of Americans would be somewhat or very comfortable with a Muslim president.

His suggestion to change these numbers is to encourage more people (and people who run for office) to come clean about their lack of faith and their belief in free-thinking instead of wishful thinking.

This is my first post in what is hopefully going to be a weekly series focusing on atheism and agnosticism and the foibles and failures of faith. I'd love to hear feedback from readers about Godless Wednesdays. Suggestions for a better title would be welcomed!

POLL: Americans Supports Trans Equality

There is excellent news about a new poll which bolsters the case for strong transgender civil rights protections.

The Public Religion Research Institute concluded:

Overwhelming majorities of Americans agree that transgender people should have the same general rights and legal protections as others.*

·              Approximately 9-in-10 (89%) Americans agree that transgender people deserve the same rights and protections as other Americans.

·                     Overwhelming majorities of all major religious groups agree that transgender people should have the same rights and protections as other Americans, including approximately 8-in-10 (83%) white evangelical Protestants, and roughly 9-in-10 Catholics (93%), white mainline Protestants (90%), and the unaffiliated (95%).

·                     Overwhelming majorities of Republicans (86%), Independents (94%), and Democrats (92%) also agree.

·              More than 8-in-10 (81%) Americans agree that legal protections for gay and lesbian people should also include transgender people.

Approximately three-quarters of Americans both say Congress should pass employment nondiscrimination laws to protect transgender people, and favor Congress’s recent expansion of hate crimes legislation to protect transgender people.

·              Three-quarters of Americans agree that Congress should pass laws to protect transgender people from job discrimination.

·                     Solid majorities of every major religious group agree that Congress should pass laws to protect transgender people from job discrimination, including nearly two-thirds (65%) of white evangelical Protestants.

·                     A majority (55%) of Republicans agree that Congress should pass laws to protect transgender people from job discrimination, as do overwhelming majorities of Independents (79%) and Democrats (86%).

·              Approximately three-quarters (74%) of Americans also favor Congress’ recent expansion of federal hate crime laws to include crimes committed on the basis of the victim’s gender, sexual orientation or gender identity, compared to only 22% who oppose.

·                     Solid majorities of every major religious group favor Congress’ recent expansion of hate crimes legislation to include gender identity. White evangelical Protestants demonstrate the lowest support, but nearly two-thirds (64%) of this group favor including gender identity in hate crimes laws.

·                     A majority of Republicans (56%) and approximately 8-in-10 Independents (79%) and Democrats (84%) also agree.

Approximately two-thirds of Americans both report being well informed about transgender people and issues, and generally understand what the term “transgender” means.

·              Two-thirds of Americans agree that they feel well informed about transgender persons and issues, while 3-in-10 disagree.

·              In order to determine whether Americans understood the term “transgender,” PRRI conducted a follow-up survey in September 2011 that asked respondents to report what the term “transgender” meant to them in their own words. Among the 91% of Americans who report that they have heard of the term transgender, 76% give an essentially accurate definition. Thus, overall, more than two-thirds (69%) of Americans are able to identify what the term “transgender” means without any assistance.

·                     Forty-six percent define a transgender person as someone who switches from one gender to another, either generally (39%) or through a medical procedure (7%).

·                     Eleven percent define a transgender person as someone who lives like the opposite gender (6%) or identifies more with the opposite gender (5%).

·                     Ten percent describe a transgender person as someone who is born the wrong sex or born in the wrong body.

·                     Nine percent define a transgender person as someone who has identified with both genders.

·              The following are examples of verbatim responses:

·                     “A person who feels like they are more like the other sex”

·                     “It’s someone born one sex, and they think they’re another”

·                     “Generally someone who thinks they are in the wrong body”

·              Eleven percent of Americans say that they have a close friend or family member who is transgender, compared to 58% who say that they have a close friend or family member who is gay or lesbian.

POLL: Support for Marriage Equality in Maine

Well, well! Despite being rejected at the polls on election day 2009 when Maine's Question 1 (voiding that state's recently passed marriage equality law) was approved by voters 53% to 47%, marriage equality is now enjoying majority support in the state as the 2012 federal elections approach, and Equality Maine considers going back to the ballot with a marriage equality measure.

A new poll from PPP shows that 51% of Maine respondents think that same-sex marriage should be legal, but before one gets too confident, I would point out that this is within the margin of error of ±3.8 percentage points of this poll (673 voters contacted between 10/28-10/31/2011).So, it is true that more Maine voters support marriage equality than oppose it, but the poll does not indicate majority support for marriage equality in Maine yet. Hopefully, that will be the case one year from now, on election day 2012!

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God

Graphics Depict Gay Marriage Support 2001-2011

The Pew Forum has created these very useful slides depicting the public's change in opinion on marriage equality over the last decade.

Hat/tip to LGBT Think Progress.

Maryland Poll Shows Close Split On Marriage Equality

A recent poll of Marylanders shows that they are closely split on whether marriage equality should be the law of the Free State.

The Washington Post reports on the new poll:

The Gonzales poll found 48 percent of Marylanders who vote regularly favor a law allowing same-sex marriages, while 49 percent of that population are against allowing same-sex marriages.

There is a notable difference based on race. Fifty-one percent of white voters approve, compared to 41 percent of African-American voters. Meanwhile, 46 percent of white voters disapprove, compared to 59 percent of African Americans.

The opinion of voters could become particularly relevant if a same-sex marriage bill passes this session.

Opponents have vowed to take advantage of a provision in the state Constitution that allows citizens to petition just-passed laws to the ballot. With enough signatures, same-sex marriage would be subject to a statewide vote in November 2012.

This poll just goes to show tat just enacting a marriage equality law in Maryland will be less than half the battle, making sure that there is popular support for the measure, and that it goes into effect before a ballot battle is even more important. As things stand now, the good guys would lose the marriage equality battle at the ballot box in Maryland.

POLL: NC Anti-gay relationship amendment ahead 61-34

After years of being stopped by a Democratic majority in one House of the North Carolina legislature, a constitutional amendment to ban the recognition of "[any] domestic legal union between members of the same sex (i.e. same-sex marriages and domestic partnerships) was passed by the new Republican majority September 12th.

This week comes the bad news that despite a majority of North Carolinians either supporting marriage equality or domestic partnerships almost two-thirds support this virulently anti-gay constitutional amendment:

PPP's first look at the proposed marriage amendment in North Carolina since the legislature placed it on the ballot finds it leading 61-34. Republicans are overwhelmingly in favor of it (80/17) and independents (52/43) and Democrats (49/44) support it as well, although by more narrow margins.

The interesting thing is that 51% of this same set of voters supports legal recognition for gay couples. 22% favor gay marriage and another 29% civil unions, with only 46% completely opposed to granting same sex couples legal recognition.  The problem for those trying to defeat the amendment is that 37% of voters who support gay marriage or civil unions are still planning to vote for it.  That suggests a lot of folks aren't familiar with how wide reaching the proposed amendment would be and it gives those fighting it a chance- they just have to get their message out effectively to the majority of North Carolinians who do support legal recognition for gay couples that the proposal goes too far.

This is really a classic example of how small differences in poll question wording can lead to huge differences in how people respond. Last month we asked the following question "State legislators have proposed an amendment to the North Carolina Constitution that would prohibit the recognition of marriage, civil unions, or domestic partnerships for gay and lesbian couples. If the election was held today,would you vote for or against this amendment?" When you ask it that way only 30% of voters are supportive and 55% are opposed. Voters are against 'prohibiting' recognition for gay couples. But if you word it in such a way that all you're doing is defining marriage as between one man and one woman, voters are ok with that.  You're asking about the same thing in both cases, but the semantics make a huge difference and Republicans clearly know what they're doing with the language that's on the ballot.

One key group of voters those fighting the amendment will really have to reach out to is black Democrats. 70% of them support it to 25% opposed. White Democrats on the other hand oppose it by a 57/37 margin.

The only anti-gay marriage amendment to have been defeated was in Arizona, and it similarly attempted to ban both marriages and domestic partnerships. That measure failed in 2006 when senior citizen groups came out against the measure. But in that state the measure was actually stripping people of exstant domestic partnership benefits. I don't believe North Carolina has any state recognition of same-sex couples (or opposite-sex couples) outside of marriage, so the amendment is banning a "theoretical" problem which will be easy to demonize in  Bible Belt state.

Herman Cain Leads Latest NBC Poll

Black Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain is now leading the polls for the Republican nomination, breaking out of the single digit pack.

Cain also leads putative frontrunner Mitt Romney in recent polls in Florida, South Carolina, and Iowa..  Surely, a Black man could never be elected President of the United States, right?

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God.

POLL: Marriage Equality Support in MA Hits 60%

Massachusetts was the first state to legalize marriage equality, back in 2004 and there were all sorts of predictions that disaster would strike the Bay State. There were multiple failed attempts to amend the state constitution, or allow the majority to impose their will on the minority through a ballot measure. None of that happened.

A recent poll by PPP shows that 60% of respondents in Massachusetts now support marriage equality!

Q: Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal: 60
Illegal: 30
Not sure: 10

Q: Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry: 56
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry: 30
There should be no recognition of a gay couple’s relationship: 12
Not sure: 2

Q: Has the legalization of gay marriage in Massachusetts had a positive or negative impact on your life, or has it not had any impact at all?

Positive impact: 18
Negative impact: 15
No impact at all: 67

My favorite number in this poll is that last one. 67% of respondents said that the legalization of gay marriage in their state has had no impact on their life. That has been the argument of marriage equality activists like myself all along. How does MY marriage (to a man) affect your marriage? If you are honest with yourself, you know that it simply doesn't, at all. The professional heterosexual supremacists at the National Organization for Marriage are simply lying about this fact, every single day.Happily, fewer and few people are believing their lies every day as well.

As former Chief Justice of the New York Court of Appeals Judith Kaye wrote in dissent in Hernandez v Robles (the unsuccessful marriage lawsuit ) "There are enough marriage licences to go around for everyone."

POLL: NJ Supports Marriage Equality 47%-42%

A new PPP poll of New Jersey voters shows that support for marriage equality is now the plurality position. In December 2009 a vote to legalize marriage equality failed when Governor-elect Chris Christie lobbied vigorously to kill the bill. New Jersey has had civil unions since December 2006, two months after the State Supreme Court ruled that the state must provide same-sex couples with all the rights and benefits of opposite sex couples but declined to legalize marriage equality.

While New Jersey failed to legalize same-sex marriage when it came to 
a vote in the state senate in 2010, now the Garden State is in favor of following in New 
York’s footsteps. By a 47-42 margin, New Jersey voters feel same-sex marriage should be legal. Those aged 30-45 come out strongest in support of legal same-sex marriage in New Jersey, with 55% in support and 35% opposed. New Jersey currently allows civil unions, and when they are added as an option, voters are split between marriage and civil unions. 41% favor marriage to 40% for civil unions, while 17% oppose all recognition. 


[...]

PPP surveyed 480 New Jersey voters from July 15th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Hat/tip to Talking Points Memo.

New Poll On New York Marriage Law

There is a new poll which asks Americans nationwide whether the legalization of marriage equality in New York state on July 24th is a positive or negative development. The results show that it depends on whether you are conservative Republican (and/or white evangelical Protestant) or not. If you are, you generally oppose it, if you're not you think it's a positive development.

Democrats and Republicans react in opposite ways to the new law, each facing stark internal divisions that may present challenges to building a winning coalition in 2012. Among Democrats, the divide is between the liberal base and those with conservative or moderate stripes. Liberal Democrats view the law positively by an overwhelming 74 to 25 percent margin. A smaller 54 percent majority of moderate and conservative Democrats say the same. Among African Americans, another loyal segment of the Democratic party coalition, more than six in 10 say the law is a negative development, while roughly one in three see it positively. Republicans broadly reject the law by a 2 to 1 margin, but alignment with the tea party movement complicates political calculations concerning the issue. More than seven in 10 Republicans who support the Tea Party movement view the New York law as a negative development.

This partisan divide in the electorate about marriage equality has been a frequent topic at this blog. Many people believe that the tipping point in favor of marriage equality becoming the law of the land has already reached.

Recently, researches at my alma mater have produced a model of conversion which indicates that when just 10% of a population has an implacable, unalterable position that view will eventually become the majority position, given enough time.

POLL: CA Voters Reject "Tough On Crime" Policies

Excellent news from California! In the midst of a financial meltdown California voters are beginning to realize that they can not continue to spend billions of dollars locking up non-violent criminal offenders in more and more prisons.

The Los Angeles Times reports:

The ailing economy far outweighs crime as the top concern for most people today, the pollsters said. That, along with the court order, could help explain voters' new receptivity to changes long sought by prisoner-rights advocates:

— More than 60% of respondents, including majorities among Democrats, Republicans and those who declined to state a party preference, said they would support reducing life sentences for third strike offenders convicted of property crimes such as burglary, auto theft and shoplifting.

— Nearly 70% said they would sanction the early release of some low-level offenders whose crimes did not involve violence.

— About 80% said they approve of keeping low-level, nonviolent offenders in county custody — including jails, home detention or parole — instead of sending them to state prisons. The same percentage favors paroling inmates who are paralyzed, in comas or so debilitated by advanced disease that they no longer pose a threat to public safety.

The pollsters noted that people don't generally favor the release of convicted criminals. But "when it comes to prisons," said Linda DiVall of American Viewpoint, "voters are looking for solutions that don't raise taxes or take money from other priorities like education."

Only 12% of respondents said they'd be willing to accept less state spending on healthcare or education to pay for more prisons. And less than a quarter of voters want to pay higher taxes to build prisons or ship inmates to private lockups in other states to comply with the courts.

This year the state plans to spend $9.8 billion on prisons, making it the third-highest general fund expenditure, behind education and healthcare.

"We spend such a large portion of our budget on crime and prison systems, and we get so little for it," said Amanda Hixson, 59, a Democrat from Sacramento.

Politicians determined to burnish their law-and-order credentials try to scare the public about releasing inmates early, Hixson said, "but some guy who's got three pot busts just isn't going to be that terrifying on the street."

I look forward to voting on ballot measures in 2012 which will finally end this madness which seeks o bankrupt the state by spending ridiculous amounts on criminal justice as compared to education.

CA-36: Hahn Barely Leads Huey In Special Election

Janice Hahn (D) has a lead of 8 points over a Tea Party Republican
 in tomorrow's Congressional special election in the 36th District

Daily Kos has a new poll of the 36th Congressional district special election which should scare the bejeezus out of every Democrat in Southern California! In the special election between Democratic Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn and Tea Party Republican businessman Craig Huey

Here are the poll results:

Janice Hahn (D): 52 

Craig Huey (R): 44 

Undecided: 4 

Margin of Error: ±3.9%

The margin of error is important. The spread between the candidates is a mere 8 points but the margin of error is ±3.9 which means that Hahn's lead could theoretically be 0.2 percentage points (or it could also be 15.8 points). Another interesting factor there is the undecided number: just 4 percentage points. That is pretty low, as it should be, since election day is tomorrow Tuesday July 12th. However, people in the 36th district have been voting absentee-by-mail for weeks. However, there is not so good news there for Hahn either.

Dave Catanese of Politico has these totals by the party registrations of those people who had requested vote-by-mail ballots as of Friday July 1st:

Republican/Libertarian — 13,343 

Democratic/Green — 14,035 

Non-affiliated — 5,512

Democrats/Greens outnumber Republican/Libertarian absentee voters by a mere 692 votes! However, in California, it is more likely than not that Hahn is winning the vast majority of the Decline To State ("Non-Affiliated") voters so in that case she should be going into tomorrow's election with a lead, but that's a BIG IF.
The 36th is a pretty tricky district, even if Obama carried by 30 points (64-34), which is a bit less than the 69-31 longtime incumbent Jane Harman had carried it by.

I fully expect Janice Hahn to replace Harman in Congress representing the 36th District tomorrow. It should be interesting to see what happens to the 36th District in the final round of redistricting and if Huey will have a better chance of unseating Hahn in a less partisan district.

Election Results for tomorrow can be found here at LAvote.net.

EQME Plans 2012 Marriage Equality Ballot Measure

Well, well, well! The LGBT community will not only be playing defense of our civil rights in the 2012 election in Minnesota but will also be playing offense in Maine. 

Equality Maine has announced that they will be attempting to put this question before voters on the November 2012 ballot:

Do you favor a law allowing marriage licenses for same-sex couples that protects religious freedom by ensuring no religion or clergy be required to perform such a marriage in violation of their religious beliefs?

More interestingly, Equality Maine also released the information that marriage equality is a majority position in Maine, according to recent polls.

The Bangor Daily News reports:

“We’ve changed hearts and minds during ‘No on One,’ and since then, many more Mainers have changed their hearts and continue to change their minds,” said Smith in a Thursday release. “We have been going door to door, talking to them and hearing their journey toward support. In two separate polls, conducted over the last five months, 53 percent of Mainers surveyed said they support letting gay and lesbian couples marry here.”

[...]

Supporters must get 57,277 signatures to get the question on the November 2012 ballot.

Gay marriage supporters hope to build on momentum in Rhode Island and in New York, which earlier this month became the sixth state to allow gay marriage.

In 2009, Maine voters used a People's Veto to overturn a marriage equality bill by a vote of 53% to 47% on Question 1 that had been passed through the legislature and signed by Governor Baldacci at the time.

Another Poll Confirms Supermajority For NY Marriage Equality

Another poll (Quinnipiac) has confirmed that there is a large majority of support for marriage equality in New York:

Support for legislation allowing same-sex couples to marry is 58 - 36 percent, higher than ever while statistically unchanged from 56 - 38 percent April 14. Support is 72 - 23 percent among Democrats and 58 - 34 percent among independent voters, while Republicans are opposed 64 - 34 percent. There is little gender gap: men support same-sex marriage 58 - 37 percent, while women back it 59 - 34 percent. 

The poll also illustrates the trendlines for support for equality have been increasing over time:

TREND: Would Do you support or oppose a law that would allow same-sex couples to get married?

SUPPORT... High Low Jun 02 Apr 14 Feb 24 Jan 27 Dec 16 Jun 02 Apr 15 2011 2011 2011 2011 2009 2011 2004 Support 58 56 54 56 47 58 37 Oppose 36 38 39 37 46 36 66 DK/NA 6 5 7 7 7 6 8

The question for State Senate Republicans is what side of history do they want to be on?

Obama's Job Approval Rating At 51%