Saturday Politics: Isadore Hall Outraises Both Incumbents in CA-44

Assemblyman Isadore Hall previously came to my attention because he announced he was interested in a run for Congress way back in June even before redistricting was complete which would have entailed him challenging a sitting African-American Congresswoman. Now that redistricting is complete, there is much drama in what is being called the 44th Congressional District because it contains most of U.S. Rep. Laura Richardson's old district but also contains pieces of the former 36th Congressional district which was won by former Los Angeles City councilmember Janice Hahn in a special election this July.

Now  U.S. Rep. Hahn has controversially decided to run in the 44th congressional district, a district specifically designed to be "majority-minority" against U.S. Rep. Laura Richardson and Assemblymember Hall, who are both African-Americans.

However, what is striking that this week came the news that in the last reporting period the state legislator out-raised both of his federal legislator rivals.

The National Journal reports:

Richardson’s been the subject of ethics questions recently: She’s accused of forcing her staff to work for and contribute to her campaign. She’s denied the allegations, but her fundraising dropped off in the third quarter, bringing in only $72,000 with just $116,000 in the bank. Hahn, after her special election, raised $139,000. A third Democrat, Assemblyman Isadore Hall, outraised them both with $158,000.

Very interesting. In the Los Angeles area there are a number of these intra-Democrat incumbent versus incumbent battles, the most amusing being Rep. Brad Sherman versus Rep. Howard Berman (in the new CA-30), who not only have similar sounding names but basically identical voting records.

CA-36: Hahn Defeats Huey By 9 Points

In yesterday's special election to replace former U.S. Representative Jane Harman in the 36th Congressional District of California, Los Angeles City Councilwoman has defeated Republican Tea Party businessman Craig Huey 54.5%-45.5%, just under 7,00
0 votes out of 75,000 cast.

The details are:

As of Date: 07/12/2011 Time: 23:31             Votes  Percent 
                                                                             
US REPRESENTATIVE 36 DIST    TERM ENDS 01/03/13                              
                                                                             
   JANICE HAHN            DEM                  41,585    54.56 
   CRAIG HUEY             REP                  34,636    45.44 
                                                                             
TOTAL PRECINCTS        261            

PRECINCTS REPORTING    261   100.00 
REGISTRATION       342,492   

Congratiolations to Congresswoman-elect Hahn!

CA-36: Hahn Barely Leads Huey In Special Election

Janice Hahn (D) has a lead of 8 points over a Tea Party Republican
 in tomorrow's Congressional special election in the 36th District

Daily Kos has a new poll of the 36th Congressional district special election which should scare the bejeezus out of every Democrat in Southern California! In the special election between Democratic Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn and Tea Party Republican businessman Craig Huey

Here are the poll results:

Janice Hahn (D): 52 

Craig Huey (R): 44 

Undecided: 4 

Margin of Error: ±3.9%

The margin of error is important. The spread between the candidates is a mere 8 points but the margin of error is ±3.9 which means that Hahn's lead could theoretically be 0.2 percentage points (or it could also be 15.8 points). Another interesting factor there is the undecided number: just 4 percentage points. That is pretty low, as it should be, since election day is tomorrow Tuesday July 12th. However, people in the 36th district have been voting absentee-by-mail for weeks. However, there is not so good news there for Hahn either.

Dave Catanese of Politico has these totals by the party registrations of those people who had requested vote-by-mail ballots as of Friday July 1st:

Republican/Libertarian — 13,343 

Democratic/Green — 14,035 

Non-affiliated — 5,512

Democrats/Greens outnumber Republican/Libertarian absentee voters by a mere 692 votes! However, in California, it is more likely than not that Hahn is winning the vast majority of the Decline To State ("Non-Affiliated") voters so in that case she should be going into tomorrow's election with a lead, but that's a BIG IF.
The 36th is a pretty tricky district, even if Obama carried by 30 points (64-34), which is a bit less than the 69-31 longtime incumbent Jane Harman had carried it by.

I fully expect Janice Hahn to replace Harman in Congress representing the 36th District tomorrow. It should be interesting to see what happens to the 36th District in the final round of redistricting and if Huey will have a better chance of unseating Hahn in a less partisan district.

Election Results for tomorrow can be found here at LAvote.net.