SCOTUS Aiming To Be Factor In 2012 Elections

The U.S. Supreme Court has announced some decisions recently which indicate that they will be a major factor in the 2012 presidential election. They announced they would decide three politically fraught cases: the constitutionality of the health care reform law, the constitutionality of Texas's congressional redistricting map and the constitutionality of Arizona's wildly xenophobic immigration law SB-1070.

U.S. Rep. Barney Frank Retirement Announcement

The longest-serving openly gay member of Congress, U.S. Representative Barney Frank (MA-05), announced today that he would not seek re-election to the U.S. House in 2012.

There are currently on.y four openly LGBT members of Congress, and Tammy Baldwin is giving up her seat to run for the United States Senate. David Ciccilline looks to have a tough-re-election bid. Jared Polis recently welcomed a newborn son to his household.

Joe.My.God has a collection of reactions from the national LGBT organizations on the news of Frank's retirement.

Saturday Politics: Isadore Hall Outraises Both Incumbents in CA-44

Assemblyman Isadore Hall previously came to my attention because he announced he was interested in a run for Congress way back in June even before redistricting was complete which would have entailed him challenging a sitting African-American Congresswoman. Now that redistricting is complete, there is much drama in what is being called the 44th Congressional District because it contains most of U.S. Rep. Laura Richardson's old district but also contains pieces of the former 36th Congressional district which was won by former Los Angeles City councilmember Janice Hahn in a special election this July.

Now  U.S. Rep. Hahn has controversially decided to run in the 44th congressional district, a district specifically designed to be "majority-minority" against U.S. Rep. Laura Richardson and Assemblymember Hall, who are both African-Americans.

However, what is striking that this week came the news that in the last reporting period the state legislator out-raised both of his federal legislator rivals.

The National Journal reports:

Richardson’s been the subject of ethics questions recently: She’s accused of forcing her staff to work for and contribute to her campaign. She’s denied the allegations, but her fundraising dropped off in the third quarter, bringing in only $72,000 with just $116,000 in the bank. Hahn, after her special election, raised $139,000. A third Democrat, Assemblyman Isadore Hall, outraised them both with $158,000.

Very interesting. In the Los Angeles area there are a number of these intra-Democrat incumbent versus incumbent battles, the most amusing being Rep. Brad Sherman versus Rep. Howard Berman (in the new CA-30), who not only have similar sounding names but basically identical voting records.

Saturday Politics: AD-50 Gets Complicated

Assemblymember Betsy Butler represented
the 53rd Assembly District since 2010

Of course at MadProfessah.com we have been paying close attention to the impacts of redistricting on California politics in particular. You may recall that last year MadProfessah closely covered the ins and outs of the highly contested race for the 53rd Assembly District seat, where a viable openly gay, Black candidate was running. The seat was run by Equality California board member, lobbyist and straight ally Betsy Butler.

In redistricting the old 53rd was split between 3 new districts, the 62nd, 66th and 50th. Now, Butler has decided to move into the 50th and run for "re-election" from that district, instead of the 62nd where her current residence is. However Assemblymember Steve Bradford, who is African American, intends to run in the 62nd which has a significant Black population. However, the 50th District contains the liberal pockets of Santa Monica and West Hollywood and openly lesbian candidate Torie Osborne has announced her intention to represent this district. Previously, Osborne's ex-girlfriend, Sheila James Kuehl, was the first openly LGBT person ever elected to the California legislature and had been elected to represent West Hollywood in a similar district.

Butler's decision has not endeared her with LGBT activists.

But Osborn is facing powerful opposition from an unexpected source: Assembly Speaker John Pérez. The speaker is backing Assemblywoman Betsy Butler, who plans to move from Marina del Rey into the new 50th district. 

If neither side backs down, the contest could cost millions and drive a wedge through the L.A. Democratic Party. 

"This is gonna be the most exciting Assembly race in Southern California," said party chair Eric Bauman.Osborn's supporters hope it doesn't come to that. They argue that a seat that includes West Hollywood should be represented by a gay person. (Butler is straight.) 

[...] 

Much of Butler's current district has been drawn into the new 66th district, which is split almost evenly between Democrats and Republicans. Butler apparently feels she stands a better chance in the 50th, which leans heavily Democratic.

Bauman, who is an adviser to Pérez, pushed back against the claim that the 50th ought to be represented by a gay person.

"It's not a gay seat," he said. "There are many gay people in the Legislature now. That's a bogus argument."

Bauman said that Osborn would make an "outstanding" legislator. But, he said, "I think it's logical for any leader of any Legislative house to protect their members first."

There are other Democrats in the race, including Santa Monica Mayor Richard Bloom. West Hollywood Councilman Jeffrey Prang dropped out earlier this month, because he did not want to challenge Butler. 

It should be very interesting!

CA-44: Rep. Hahn Faces Two Black Challengers For Congress

The old 36th Congressional District becomes the new 44th

Whoa! The fallout from decadal redistricting continues. The latest drama surrounds Black political power in Los Angeles County and its representation in the United States Congress. The 36th Congressional District, which was won by Janice Hahn in a special election in July 2011 has been redrawn so that the Congresswoman's residence now resides in the new 44th District.The problem is that the new 44th District was deliberately drawn to have a higher percentage of African American voters, and as many people have noted, Janice Hahn is not Black. But recently Hahn announced that she will run for Congress in the 44th District.

However, Congresswoman Laura Richardson and State Assemblyman Isadore Hall are, and they have both announced that they are running for the new 44th District. Rep. Richardson is running because the district in which she lives has been re-drawn to have a lot more Republican voters from Orange County in it.

A few weeks ago, Janice Hahn released a poll showing her with a big lead over both Hall and Richardson:

Rep. Janice Hahn: 47
Rep. Laura Richardson: 24
Asm. Isadore Hall: 7


Hall's problem is that nobody knows who he is. Richardson's problem is that people know exactly who she is, and they don't like her. According to Hahn's poll, Richardson has a favorability rating of just 37%. (Though she does much better with black voters, at 68%.)


[...]


According to the poll, Hahn does better than Richardson even among black voters. Hahn claims a 74% favorable rating among African-Americans, to Richardson's 68%.

Black politicians who have long supported any Hahn for elected public office (her father Kenneth for County Supervisor, her brother James for Mayor of Los Angeles and Janice herself for City Council and Congress) are very angry.

However, this week Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa endorsed Janice Hahn for Congress in the 44th district.

1st Anti-Gay Ballot Measure (To Repeal SB48) Ready To Go

Bad news about SB 48, the FAIR Education Act Governor Brown signed into law on July 14, 2011. The heterosexual supremacists who brough California Proposition 8 have filed a referendum challenge to the law and received approval from Attorney General Kamala Harris to start circulating petitions in order to gather the 504,000 valid signatures to submit to Secretary of State Debra Bowen to place the question of the measure's legality on the June 2012 ballot.

Karen Ocamb of LGBTPOV has the scoop:

Referendum to Overturn Non-Discrimination Requirements for School Instruction.

Summary Date: 07/25/11 | Circulation Deadline: 10/12/11 | Signatures Required: 504,760

Proponent: Paulo E. Sibaja (909) 996-9391

If signed by the required number of registered voters and filed with the Secretary of State, this petition will place on the statewide ballot a challenge to a state law previously approved by the Legislature and Governor. The law must then be approved by a majority of voters at the next statewide election to go into effect. The law would require school instructional materials to recognize societal contributions of various groups; and would prohibit school instructional materials that reflect adversely on persons based on their ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation and other characteristics. (11-0023.) (Full Text)

By a referendum, all passage of the measure would do is take back the laws of California to the way they were prior to July 14, 2011. LGBT people and the disability community would not be required to be included in instructional materials. Previously the law mandated the teaching of many other groups, mainly racial and ethnic minorities and Equality California and Mark Leno sponsored legislation to add LGBT and people with disabilities to the list (and change American Indian to Native American and Asian Pacific to Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders).

This is basically a proxy fight over gay rights the right wing is hoping to use to increase conservative turnout in the June 2012 election which will be an incredibly important election (maybe more important than the Presidential election in California) as (almost) every single district-based political office in California will be up for election for the first time in a redrawn district.

I've also heard rumors of a second anti-gay ballot measure which would attempt to divorce the 18,000 same-sex couples that got married in California prior to Proposition 8 and preempt any positive decision striking down Proposition 8 as violating the federal constitution. This second measure seems like even more folly because any measure seeking to replicate or even out do Proposition 8 in anti-gay fervor would clearly also be subject to a similar lawsuit which will probably nullify that measure.

Understanding Redistricting, Part 1

It matters how you draw the lines

Dante Atkins of Daily Kos has a very useful article on the importance of redistricting for progressives.

In most states, the decennial maps for congressional districts are redrawn and approved by state legislatures. Why does this matter? Because partisan state legislatures are likely to divvy up the districts in a way that benefits their party. How does this work in practice? At its most elementary, let's hypothesize a state with a population of nine people: five Democrats and four Republicans. And from those nine people, the Census Bureau required creating three districts with an equal number of people. If the state legislature were controlled by Democrats, they might make a map that carves the state in a way that has a majority of Democratic seats. But if Republicans were to control the legislature—something that happens from time to time in Democratic-voting states such as Minnesota—they just might pass a map with different districts that gives the GOP a majority of the seats. 

The 2010 elections will have long-lasting consequences for control of the House of Representatives. The problem isn't just that Republicans won so many seats; the larger problem is that they won them at exactly the right time. Incumbent representatives are hard to defeat, but unseating freshmen is generally an easier task. Unfortunately, having a wave election in a redistricting year allows the new majority party to take advantage of the redistricting process to shore up vulnerable members, usually by taking some friendlier territory from a safer, better-known incumbent—serving essentially to "lock in" that majority for the rest of the decade. In addition, less scrupulous legislators can use the redistricting process to consolidate the districts of opponents to force their members into either retirement or a bruising primary fight and removing them from their seats regardless—a process playing out right now to eliminate Democratic seats in states like North Carolina and Michigan. The GOP has also shown its willingness to use redistricting to ward off potential political disadvantages at the state legislative level as well: for example, Wisconsin Republicans are redrawing the state senate lines in a hurry before the recall elections, even though doing so right now would create a bureaucratic nightmare. Clearly, the GOP is willing to use redistricting as a political weapon in spite of any resulting collateral damage.

While most states have this concern, California no longer does. In 2008, voters passed Proposition 11, which created a so-called Citizens Redistricting Commission that removed the authority to draw legislative lines from the state legislature and put it into the hands of a supposedly non-partisan commission (in 2010, a second proposition was passed that put the authority to draw boundaries for congressional districts as well into the hands of this same body). The Democratic Party opposed this measure for obvious reasons: As Democrats have a substantial majority of seats, they control the redistricting process and could use it to maximize Democratic seats while ensuring no contentious primary battles among the state's delegation. (Full disclosure: I serve on the executive board of the California Democratic Party.)Furthermore, the commission's mandated structure is hardly representative of California's population: despite the fact that California is an overwhelmingly Democratic state, the commission is required to have an equal number of Democrats and Republicans serving, with absolutely no guarantee of geographic or ethnic diversity.

The commission has had other problems, such as missed deadlines and cancellation of draft maps—and right now, the current maps are likely to face suits, especially from organizations in the Latino community who feel that the maps dilute their community's voting power and are thus illegal under the Voting Rights Act. Nevertheless, among Democrats the mood of uncertainty at the congressional level has yielded to a cautious optimism, as the commission's draft maps (should they hold) will likely result in Democratic gains of multiple seats, and defeat or retirement of several longtime Republican members. 

Isadore Hall Announces Intention To Run For Congress

Assemblymember Isadore hall has announced his
intention to run for a South LA Congressional seat

The decennial redistricting will lead to a lot of turnover of the California congressional delegation, especially since a non-partisan commission is drawing the boundaries of every congressional and state legislative district in the state. This means that every current officeholder will be running in a brand new district. Many ambitious politicians will seize this opportunity to run for higher offices.

One such politician is Assemblymember Isadore Hall III, an African-American pastor who represents the 52nd Assembly District which includes part of North Long Beach and all of Compton. Hall recently announced his intention to run for a new Congressional district which is intended to be "majority-minority." There are currently 4 Black members in the 53-member Congressional delegation, all women: Maxine Waters (CA-35), Karen Bass (CA-33), Laura Richardson (CA-37) and Barbara Lee (CA-09). The district that Hall is eyeing would probably be one that Waters would be expected to run in, unless the 72-year-old Congresswoman decides to retire instead.

Hall's staff sent out a press release about his political intentions:

Compton, California – California State Assemblymember Isadore Hall announced his campaign for Congress today. Hall intends to run in a new Congressional District, which according to the first draft of maps released by the California Citizens Redistricting Committee on June 10th, might include the cities of Compton, Carson, Lynwood, Hawthorne, Gardena, Lawndale, portions of the City of Los Angeles and Unincorporated Los Angeles County.  

“As a local School Board Member, Councilmember and Assemblymember, I have worked tirelessly to make a difference in this community,” said Hall. “Our district needs a representative that will fight cuts to education and gang prevention programs, protect critical frontline services, and partner with President Obama to create family wage jobs.” 
“I have spent the past few days talking with friends and community leaders about running for this new seat,” Hall added.  “The response has been overwhelming and I am energized by the grassroots support we have already received.”

Hall is a former two term President of the Compton Unified School District Board of Trustees. He was elected to the Compton City Council in 2003 where he served in various leadership positions including Mayor pro Tempore.  Hall was elected to the California State Assembly in 2008 and served as Assistant Speaker pro Tempore during his first term. He currently serves as a member of the Appropriations, Elections and Redistricting and Human Services Committees. He chairs the Assembly Committee on Government Organization.
The youngest of six children, Hall was born and raised in the City of Compton. Hall holds a bachelors degree in Business Administration, a Masters Degree in Management and Leadership from the University of Southern California, a Masters Degree in Public Administration from National University and will be conveyed his Ph.D. from Next Dimension Bible College later this summer.

No incumbent member of Congress currently lives in the proposed Congressional District; however, Hall will not seek election to Congress in the event that Congresswoman Maxine Waters seeks to represent the new district.

I'm pretty confident that this will be the first of a lot of similar announcements.